Well if you are saying they are backed into a corner, then it becomes strategically viable for Russia to use it's strategic (not tactical) nuclear weapons. The big ones. I don't think NATO could respond on Ukraine's behalf without MAD. I think Russia has this window of opportunity now to do it, to disable Ukraine entirely, without being retaliated against again. I'm sure they will first consult with their partners (China, Iran and others) to make sure it won't make them a pariah.
The odds are less than half. Because I don't think the attack on the bombers significantly impacts their ability to defend themselves against a nuclear first strike by NATO just yet. But it does degrade that capability, as did the strike on their over-the-horizon radar about a year ago. Enough of those kinds of strikes and it makes Russia's best card the big nuclear card.
I don't know why Ukraine would want Russia to want to play that card.
I DO understand why NATO would want Russia to want to play that card. Russia couldn't strike a NATO country, and having struck Ukraine it will be a pariah all across the world except with it's closest allies that it will check with first.
Mike Dilger ☑️
npub1ac…9p35c
2025-06-02 08:40:04 GMT
in reply to nevent1q…a79a
Author Public Key
npub1acg6thl5psv62405rljzkj8spesceyfz2c32udakc2ak0dmvfeyse9p35cPublished at
2025-06-02 08:40:04 GMTEvent JSON
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"content": "Well if you are saying they are backed into a corner, then it becomes strategically viable for Russia to use it's strategic (not tactical) nuclear weapons. The big ones. I don't think NATO could respond on Ukraine's behalf without MAD. I think Russia has this window of opportunity now to do it, to disable Ukraine entirely, without being retaliated against again. I'm sure they will first consult with their partners (China, Iran and others) to make sure it won't make them a pariah.\n\nThe odds are less than half. Because I don't think the attack on the bombers significantly impacts their ability to defend themselves against a nuclear first strike by NATO just yet. But it does degrade that capability, as did the strike on their over-the-horizon radar about a year ago. Enough of those kinds of strikes and it makes Russia's best card the big nuclear card.\n\nI don't know why Ukraine would want Russia to want to play that card.\n\nI DO understand why NATO would want Russia to want to play that card. Russia couldn't strike a NATO country, and having struck Ukraine it will be a pariah all across the world except with it's closest allies that it will check with first.",
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