james

writes the 💡Informationist | bitcoin

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npub1cj94enk44kn5mvrcma4sp7jnlsgnn4em7rk3dh3jt4fzyqs3m02s560efa

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nprofile1qqsvfz6uem26mf6dkpud76cqlfflcyfe6ualpmgkmce9653zqggah4gpzemhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgqgcwaehxw309aex2mrp0yhxummnwa5x2un99e3k7mggxd5vm

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relay.noswhere.com

relay.damus.io

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Last Notes

2024-09-18 02:55:32

Powell, when asked about his reasoning behind the rate decision tomorrow:
“I come from a middle class family…”

2024-09-17 16:10:05

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🎯

2024-09-17 15:10:10

Good morning.
US debt now stands at $35.3 trillion. If we were to return to 0% interest and make payments of $1 million per hour, it would take approximately 4,023 years, or until the year 6,047, to bring the debt back down to zero.
Have a great day.

2024-09-15 20:08:45

Good morning.
Kamala Harris received zero votes or delegates and was *chosen* as the Democratic Party nominee by the current government overlords instead.
Have a great day.

2024-09-13 23:54:01

Good evening.
In August, the US government took $307 billion in taxes and spent $687 billion, for a deficit of $380 billion. This works out to be an annualized deficit of $4.56 trillion.
Have an awesome weekend.

2024-09-12 01:35:50

Tether generated $5.2 billion in profit in the first half of 2024, and with 123 employees, this is an annualized profit of $85.5 million per employee. 🤯

2024-09-07 16:32:18

You all didn’t think we would go #Bitcoin parabolic without one more test, did you?

2024-09-07 04:55:25

Good evening.
There are two ways this economy can go, and both of them end in massive money printing.
Have a great weekend.

2024-09-07 00:18:08

It’s amazing how so many people are currently selling Bitcoin, and I’m pretty sure I do not know a single one of them.

2024-09-06 17:40:34

The government is currently the primary driver of job ‘growth’. This means the need for ongoing and expanded federal deficits, and federal deficits are inherently and long-term inflationary. This is how you manufacture a ‘soft landing’.

2024-09-06 04:23:22

Good evening.
In case you were confused by the title, The Inflation Reduction Act did not, in fact, reduce inflation.
Have a great night.

2024-09-06 03:11:29

You all are so far ahead of the Twitter curve. I’m explaining to someone about fractional banking over there. Normies are so sadly lost in this maze of financial repression.

2024-09-06 01:10:28

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writing about that in this week’s Informationist!

2024-09-06 01:07:53

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crazy

2024-09-05 19:53:40

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🎯

2024-09-05 19:10:49

Hello.
The US government now pays over $3 billion of interest on its debt per day.
Have a great Thursday.

2024-09-05 02:38:08

For everyone who is getting fatigued with Bitcoin’s recent price action:
Over the last decade, the average return in #Bitcoin for the top 10 days each year was 184%, and the average return (loss) for all of the remaining days each year was −10%.
Patience eventually pays off, big time.

2024-09-04 17:15:41

With this morning's JOLTs data showing that job openings are falling--well below estimates--and layoffs increasing, futures show a 47% chance of a 50bp rate cute in September, up from 37% yesterday. And bad news is once again 'good news' for the markets.
https://m.primal.net/KeBi.png

2024-09-04 03:43:48

Welp. Nikkei 225 down 3.7% and the usd/yen headed lower. Looks like we’re about to see just how much of that Yen Carry Trade is still out there.
https://m.primal.net/KdEn.jpg
https://m.primal.net/KdEp.jpg

2024-09-03 17:15:17

The market is reacting negatively this morning to extremely poor ISM manufacturing data.
Here’s the TLDR:
Demand fell, inventories rose (due to unsold stock), and prices *rose* (due to labor and shipping costs). In essence, this is stagflation (higher prices in a stagnant or slowing economy).
The Fed’s worst nightmare.
https://m.primal.net/KcSH.png

2024-09-01 17:39:51

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🫶

2024-09-01 17:22:07

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✌️

2024-09-01 16:40:20

gm nostrs, enjoy your day of rest
https://m.primal.net/KYsw.jpg

2024-08-31 16:07:24

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Welcome to Nostr Carol ✌️

2024-08-31 15:36:32

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we tend to get after it 😆👊

2024-08-31 15:35:57

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🫶

2024-08-31 15:33:35

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😍✌️

2024-08-31 15:33:18

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It can be in places. I love the desert landscape. 🙏✌️

2024-08-31 15:27:23

gm nostrs, enjoy some saturday peace ✌️
https://m.primal.net/KXGK.jpg

2024-08-31 06:40:52

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There it is 😅

2024-08-31 06:40:38

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and your natural skill is …?

2024-08-31 06:02:44

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Great at one. Terrible at the other.

2024-08-31 05:36:53

I can’t sing, but I can math.
What are your two barbell skills?

2024-08-30 23:46:39

I don’t trust that if KamaWalz wins, they won’t somehow find a way to ‘suspend’ access to Twitter/X in the US.
Remain decentralized, my friends.

2024-08-30 20:53:23

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😅

2024-08-30 16:38:23

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Straight out of iPhone not HDR (see how dark the screen is) and I tweaked the exposure slightly. 🙏☀️🔥

2024-08-30 15:23:53

gm nostrs, let’s get at it.
https://m.primal.net/KVLy.jpg

2024-08-30 04:11:53

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When asked about the QT runoff of Fed balance sheet assets at a presser this past spring, I recall Powell stating that ample bank reserves would be approximately 10% of GDP. Then this quote from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, back in January 2024, said 10% to 11% of GDP would be “an approximate end point for draining reserves out of the system.” So that gives us approximately $2.8 to $3.0T. I would say that the Fed only becomes nervous once we have drained the Reverse Repo facility *and* the bank reserves fall under 12% of GDP, or ~$3.2T. So, this foots pretty well with your estimate. FWIW.

2024-08-30 02:24:31

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@npub1zry…8vpd lfg brother

2024-08-29 15:40:53

Nothing scientific and ignoring bot behavior, my experience has been that there’s currently far more thoughtfulness and intelligence on Nostr than on Twitter. At least for me, thus far. Of course, your own mileage may vary.
Anyway, keep on Nostrs ✌️

2024-08-29 03:06:18

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🦶📸😅

2024-08-28 19:59:09

Let me be clear. If Kamala Harris somehow forces a 25% unrealized capital gains tax, the flight of capital out and subsequent collapse of the US markets would be absolutely breathtaking. And the ultimate result would be far lower tax revenues than we have right now.

2024-08-28 18:16:12

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Painful and brilliant.

2024-08-28 18:08:42

There is something deeply wrong with a system that forces you to constantly put your hard earned money at risk in order to outpace the speed at which it is in turn silently stolen from you through relentless inflation.

2024-08-28 16:09:31

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Bitcoiners = 🐐
🤝

2024-08-28 15:37:29

Good morning.
Deficit spending will not end, federal debt will forever grow, and currency debasement will always follow. This is the life of a fiat currency.
Have a great day.

2024-08-28 04:12:12

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I use multiple phones. Both Android and Apple. What is your Android pref?

2024-08-27 20:16:14

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🙏

2024-08-27 20:14:37

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great. It starts here. 🙄

2024-08-27 19:59:19

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From what I could find, the study he is referring to came from the Brookings Institute and there is some nuance here: counties that voted for Biden in the 2020 election account for 71% of the nation's GDP, and the counties that supported Trump produce only 29% of the GDP.
This would likely align with total wealth, though.

2024-08-27 18:30:51

I don’t do a lot of TA, as my investments tend to be long term, but I find the past couple of days interesting, as it appears there is a concerted seller who has been moving their limit lower by the hour for 2 days now (bent arrow) , starting Sunday. Note the volume (dotted circle) pickup and the support level (dotted line) of the reversal here. FWIW, let’s see if the main seller is done.
https://m.primal.net/KQDc.png

2024-08-27 16:19:16

One to bookmark:
#note14ur…5agp

2024-08-27 16:00:49

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Brilliant thank you!

2024-08-27 07:06:21

Late night question, which app/interface are you all using for Nostr? I’m on Primal and Damus.

2024-08-26 22:11:49

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It is quite accessible.

2024-08-26 21:29:34

Anyone: Why Bitcoin?
Me: Start here.
https://m.primal.net/KOQx.jpg

2024-08-25 17:31:14

Why is 2% the right amount of inflation?
It’s the amount they can get away with in order to debase the underlying currency, much like a hidden tax, without upsetting people to the point of rebellion.
(from today’s Informationist Newsletter)

2024-08-25 03:30:39

Resist global censorship. Remain decentralized with #Nostr and #Bitcoin.

2024-08-21 02:37:07

Good evening Nostrs.
Let’s be honest. A 25% tax on unrealized capital gains is nothing more than a cheap political talking point that is so monumentally stupid that it will *never* happen.
Have a great night.

2024-08-19 18:17:43

Bottom line. It’s not really about instituting ‘price controls’, it’s about shifting blame for relentless inflation to ‘big, bad, evil corporations’ and away from the incumbents.

2024-08-18 22:32:17

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Go for it. Spaces are just yell-fests recently imo. I almost never listen to or join them anymore.

2024-08-16 17:55:57

Is it me or is Elizabeth Warren somehow becoming even *more* detached from economic reality?

2024-08-13 17:47:51

When the 2yr UST spread to Fed Funds Effective Rate goes this negative, it is a strong sign that rate cuts are imminent (and so is a recession).
https://m.primal.net/JyXR.jpg

2024-08-13 16:26:48

The across the board mainstream media meltdown over the Trump/Elon open conversation is equal parts humorous and terrifying.

2024-08-13 06:39:47

At the point that you fully understand #Bitcoin, it becomes your risk/reward benchmark for all other investments and assets, one that’s nearly impossible to beat.

2024-08-13 06:32:54

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Welcome to the decen degen madness.

2024-08-12 16:19:47

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I thought I did that. I’ll confirm

2024-08-12 16:17:33

Why is the market seemingly suddenly so obsessed with unemployment?
Look at this chart to see how, once unemployment begins to tick higher, the momentum that carries the economy into recession is virtually impossible to stop.
https://m.primal.net/JxLM.jpg

2024-08-12 00:05:51

99% of what you are being shown is pure theater and not for your benefit. Recognize this and you can begin to critically think for yourself—a rapidly disappearing skill in the Western world.

2024-08-11 02:30:25

Imagine having defected from North Korea only to now be living in the UK.

2024-08-09 15:35:44

Good morning Nostrs, it appears this may be the only place to speak openly in the future for many of us. For some already.
Stay vigilant. Stay focused.

2024-07-14 16:42:24

Nostr may be the most important app on your phone in the coming years. #note17lu…mvsk

2024-05-04 17:55:04

thank you @npub1sg6…f63m

2024-05-04 17:53:53

Good morning.
If you slept the prescribed 8 hours last night, the US government borrowed $1.94B in that time. And its Council of Economic Advisors has no idea what that means.
Have a great day.

2024-05-02 08:15:29

stay focused

2024-04-14 20:47:28

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Thank you Julia. 😅

2024-04-14 17:21:19

#Bitcoin is the only liquid asset that trades 24/7 and sometimes pays the price for this during weekends of potential World War, as investors too clever for themselves seek something, anything to sell before markets open again on Monday.

2024-03-27 16:01:24

The year is 2033. A Hershey's bar costs $39, the average home costs $2.7M, US Debt has crested $90T, and Vanguard investors are wondering why they weren’t allowed to buy #Bitcoin when it was still under $100K.

2024-03-24 00:53:15

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They will need to go further out on the curve to find more pools of capital that can and will be willing to participate in the auctions.

2024-03-22 04:07:57

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Depends on tax receipts next month. But if this administration has its way, it’ll be before that.
(It won’t get its way)

2024-03-22 03:55:02

Good evening.
I’ve been getting a lot of questions re: The Fed and QT.
Going to make this as simple as possible for everyone.
The Reverse Repo (RRF) is basically a slush fund where excess cash has been parked since QE 2020.
The Treasury has been using the RRF to fund its needs by issuing short term T-Bills.
The RRF is down to $500B from a peak of $2.5T.
When the RRF is drained, the Treasury needs to find new capital. It will do this by issuing longer dated Treasuries.
This will cause the banks to use their reserves.
There are currently $3.5T in bank reserves.
When bank reserves drop to $2.5T the Fed and Treasury get nervous.
Why?
Because they worry about another liquidity crisis like Sept 2019 when the overnight rates spiked when banks basically ran out of liquidity at the same time that the Treasury issued a pile of unexpected debt.
There are a number of reasons for this I won’t go into.
And so, when the RRF is drained or near drained, the Fed slows QT (selling the bonds they bought in 2020-2021 to add liquidity in the markets. This is also what helped create the excess slush fund of RRF).
And then, when the reserves hit $2.5T, QT ends.
Why?
The Fed cannot compete with the Treasury for liquidity at that point.
Because the last thing the Treasury can have is disfunction in a Treasury auction.
And so, QT ends.
And the next step will be?
QE.
More cowbell. More. slush fund.
Wheee.
Hope this helps. Have a great night.

2024-03-21 02:31:17

Greenpeace should just be dissolved at this point.

2024-03-18 06:01:34

You can go along with mainstream narratives or you can critically think. But you cannot do both. Choose wisely, as your future depends on it. #Bitcoin.

2024-03-11 17:52:08

#Bitcoin has just bumped #silver to become the 8th most valuable asset in the world. All else held equal...
at $105K, it jumps Saudi Aramco,
at $137K, it enters the top 3,
and at $153K, #Bitcoin becomes the second most valuable asset in the world.
https://m.primal.net/HjqU.jpg

2024-03-11 01:55:56

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Relatable 😅

2024-03-10 22:50:31

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As Jeff Booth says, it’s quite difficult to imagine a completely new system from the vantage of the old one.

2024-03-10 22:49:33

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🫂

2024-03-10 22:48:58

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Great quote.

2024-03-10 22:08:23

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Dangit. Crazy and I’m so sorry man.

2024-03-10 22:05:22

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Dude. And we just talked about this at dinner. So freaky.

2024-03-10 22:04:31

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Yo. Going to try and spend some more time here now that my Nostr is fixed!

2024-03-10 22:01:10

When you live in the #Bitcoin world for a few years, it’s truly difficult to imagine that bad takes are not malicious. In truth, they are almost always merely just from ignorance.
Reminders that we are still so early.

2024-03-07 20:44:57

Five companies (AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, and META) are hoarding a combined $517B of cash.
A mere 1.67% of that is equivalent to the $8.5B of total net inflows into the #Bitcoin ETFs, so far.

2023-12-01 18:33:43

Prediction: The Fed 'successfully' tackles inflation and brings it back down to 2%. Then the discussion about changing that target to a range (somewhere above 2%) begins.

2023-06-29 01:08:57

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Awesome! Congrats man!

2023-05-26 03:42:11

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🎯

2023-05-26 03:38:37

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Dropped this pod yesterday, but working on this week’s as we speak!
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-informationist/id1689483148?i=1000614391111

2023-05-26 03:18:45

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🎯

2023-05-26 03:14:18

Less than $50B left in the Treasury General Account.
Tick tock…

2023-05-11 03:07:26

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Welcome aboard. We have a lot of work to do to educate people on these issues. Glad you’re on the mission.