Bitcoin OG since 2010, former laptop solo miner - which makes me (amongst) the first obsolete Bitcoin miner(s), blockstream satellite node runner, #2A rights user, radiologist
Public Key
npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd Profile Code
nprofile1qqsy7nuzs3nf3lmx4e06n7k5crzwk7pr47c8l204f65azhcjz7hfdnqpz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0ds6yju2y
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2026-03-04T02:37:33Z Event JSON
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"kind": 0 ,
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Last Notes npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Exponential vs. Powerlaw…PlanB’s Stock to Flow model is very useful over a certain range. But because it is exponential, there will come a time when it is not useful. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo 1) I should have seen the pattern by 2016. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Bitcoin is unfairly cheap right now. Percentile 8.2, in fact. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo So I made an interactive bitcoin price quantile regression plotter with extrapolation as a python script for Jupyter notebooks…and then an interactive entry/exit heatmap using those percentiles and extrapolations. All with Claude’s help…it would take me months to do this on my own, with real blood, sweat, and tears, mind you…but three weeks with me learning how to use Claude…and whoa…I am now the developer I’ve always wanted to hire but never had enough money to buy… npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Yeah. I’m not really named drgo…I don’t even know how to pronounce that :) npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo An amazing building. It seems population would be too small for such a building. What’s the conspiracy angle? npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo 😂 npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo I had the chance to store a photo of my family on the blockchain. I chose not too…not because it was too expensive, it was only 0.5 bitcoin to do so, but because it seemed like spam. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo If bitcoin can’t out price data storage, it has a problem. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo What if we need more security than money itself can buy for bitcoin? I mean, what if people won’t pay enough for bitcoin transactions based on its money properties alone? npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo If you ever need an opinion of a well trained radiologist, and almost certainly the first radiologist if not first physician in bitcoin, feel free to shoot me a DM. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo As the great Plan B has taught us by through his wrong but useful stock to flow model “all models are wrong, but some are useful,” I’d like to throw my hat into this modeling ring. I don’t intend to be right, not any more than Plan B did, but I hope to be useful over a short time frame (which inarguably S2F was for anyone who wasn’t brain dead). npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Is zorin OS all that interesting? npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Best response ever. Well done brother! npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo At the end of the day, all I really accomplished was contributing to the coffers of some rather sketchy people…charity is the biggest scam :) npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Someday I will again. I helped fund what I thought would be very useful things…spent something like 50 bitcoin between bitcointalk.org and bitcoin foundation donations… npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Ultra wealthy bitcoiners do need proper education…You see, those that have held on for 15 years or so never intended to be rich and never thought about what they would do when they got there. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo A long time ago I supported a singer whose name escapes me…Google then Bitcoin Jingle, powerful song…and then I threw a little coin at a guy named Johnny Barret (Ode to Satoshi, another great song)…I was hopeful more along the lines of these songs would take off, but the time wasn’t right. But maybe soon. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Red states would have left long ago without transfer payments. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo I agree that the people who are imported are a net drag; I’m talking about the future though…like 50-100 years from now. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo And you wonder why democrats imported people? It is politically unpopular to import, and it used to be a thing republicans did that democrats hated but both sides back then knew it was a game, and neither tried to weaponize the process to guarantee either unending democrat power by upsetting the balance of red and blue states nor by actually cracking down on the problem and using it as a major campaign issue… npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo It’s little details like this that make me love the minds over at @npub12ct…c5ky : Forever Calculator mode…playful and brilliant and responsible and security conscious as well. @npub1az9…m8y8 npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Just had lunch with one of the foot surgeons, an acquaintance of mine and we share some mutual friends, but I haven’t seen him in a while. Had a great chat about nerdy things…and at the end of the conversation I learn his wife died of a glioma (primary brain cancer). I had no idea. Guys can be like that sometimes. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Resource utilization will be the death…people have no limits to demand. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Fact check: True. Well known side effect of too much weed… npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo No…not quite sure I get the meaning…I do have 1 inch cylinders of various base metals of different densities from beryllium to tungsten though… npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo I dunno… heard about it too late. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo I never got one. But was tempted. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Yup, by design…only 500 were made. Electromechanical tech, very durable. https://getblockclock.com/info.html npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Have you seen the original block clock? It was a few thousand bucks, but it was amazing. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Roughly $35,000-$135,000 is the 5-95th percentile spread. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo 70, but still within 1 SD npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Update to what is now perhaps the most important plot in bitcoin history, now with 1 and 2 std deviation bands (68 and 95% confidence intervals, and colors that AI says is pleasing and “premium”): npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Is this a real thing? I’ve tuned out the emotional CSAM screamers, but it would be interesting if somehow someone has found a real way to keep junk out of the chain… npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo On call in house today. Reminder, discharging a firearm through your skull is almost always NOT the right answer. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Fact check: true! npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Gold is amazing…it is: npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Dig in: https://www.justice.gov/epstein/search npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Finally, something blue haired Karen’s and conservatives can agree on: we need to decrease government power. The recently created federal department called ICE (it’s about 20 years old) is somewhat unique among US law enforcement agencies. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo “A pdf file or else was not self-evidently present on-chain in any meaningful sense. Bytes on-chain are not a file. A file is bytes *plus* an agreed decoding and interpretation process.” npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo I’m sorry you don’t understand Linux terminal commands. And if you did, you would see over a decade ago one transaction encoded a PDF file… npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo For regular Linux nodes: npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo If you haven’t realized ever increasing control will happen because psychopaths exist and accrue power in proportion to psychopathy, then heaven help ya! npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo I have bought MSTR with the dividends, but I’ve only owned it for 3 or 4 months. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo I’ve got a moderate STRC allocation, but I would caution anyone against storing dollars here until bitcoin drops sharply…STRC could trade down too…there is no floor, only a ceiling. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo I’m surprised too. But I’m also unaware of how quickly money can really move. Is 6 months a long or a short time? It feels like STRC has been around long enough for anyone who wanted any to get some. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Saylor has accomplished something brilliant and yet obvious at the same time: $STRC is exactly what anyone would do if they truly believed in the long term market beating returns of bitcoin…or any asset, really. Why has this not been tried before? npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo There is no right vs. left…they are all authoritarians. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Yikes npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Having watched bitcoin peak and crash for every cycle, I never formulated a plan ahead of time to try to capitalize off it…now that I have a plan, we are in a new era of no blow off tops it seems 😂 npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo 🫡 npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo If bitcoin dropped to $50,000, this would fit a curve drawn through the bottom 1% of bitcoin prices over time. By the end of the year, this curve will go through $60,000. So far, the best curve (of reasonable complexity) says price today would be about $111,000. Under 80% of that curve, I buy. Between 80% and 140%, I hodl. Between 140-150% I will take chips off the table and hodl in dollars until we get back down to 80% or under. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Without something like the golden rule, the belief would not propagate to the next generation. There is probably a minimal set of beliefs necessary for propagation through time/generations. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo That’s quite a premium over spot npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Talking to trees is highly under rated. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo These people…the first lie we must tell ourselves about others to permit our hearts to murder is to dehumanize the “other” npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Of course. But I’m betting you have never spoken with someone who was there that shared your current view. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo I guess I have a harsher take: they lost. It’s war. War is bad and losers pay dearly. That’s life. Move out or move on. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Oh my goodness…someone copied Anne Frank by hand in ballpoint pen! That’s a lot of work! npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Yup. A sad blind eye. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Well, to be fair, I wasn’t there and all I have are IRL first hand accounts of Christian’s feeding starving Jews in a cage to fall back on. But it’s possible primary evidence would speak otherwise and every culture uses greed and deception for gain, nothing special about Jews in that regard. But I doubt it. It would take a great deal of scholarly work for me to conclude Hitler wasn’t a baddy. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Ah, good point. But I see it as a double entendre. Obviously there is no such thing as a central bank of bitcoin, but bitcoin could back the central bank of the entire world if people still want to play fiat games. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Well, I don’t believe there was a price for bcn, but who knows what two people may have decided to do with each other… npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Not hacked. She deleted her account back in May. Just revived as a copycat to fool dumb people. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Central banking is the biggest attack on humanity since Hitler, Stalin, and Mao combined. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Nope. Software never looked like that. AI or AI edit all the way. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Now tell us your view on central bankers! npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Bitcoin is inevitable. But that doesn’t mean it’s imminent. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Not that one shouldn’t take pride in their work, but there should be more to a man than what he does for money. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo That’s better npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo That beauty is, IMHO, magnified by the fact that without the earth’s magnetic field, not only would such a beautiful display be absent, but we would also not have an atmosphere or life on earth as we know it…it’s not just evidence of defense of all that lives, but defense with style and class. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo This looked better in person npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo The Bank of England doesn’t give a crap about aliens or planning for such an event. This the opinion of a former employee who wasn’t worked at the bank for over a decade, as quoted in an entertainment documentary about aliens. To me, it’s not a story, it’s a personal opinion. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo There is no good system when humans are involved. America has simultaneously the best and worst doctors on earth. And health care bankrupts more people than job loss in the US (or so I’m told; hard to fact check). I’m sure their healthcare is somewhere between the US extremes. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Definitely tongue in cheek…free stuff costs someone something. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Hard to beat free stuff npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo How does one find such info? npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Video not available npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo I don’t think they are gonna like being bought. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Yes. We talked about JM’s bet. And he made good on it; hence, we don’t talk about it. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Lol npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo This explains why I can’t get my modern photos to pop like my 2006-era Nikon D50… npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Are you aware of the meaning of the terms acceleration and velocity? Because your image clearly confuses the two. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Acceleration!=velocity npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Yup. BNPL works with bitcoin on a long enough time frame. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo I’m trying to model whether I should move my 401k to bitcoin ira…tricky to calculate because price of bitcoin isn’t a constant, so bitcoin etf fees will change as price changes. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo 401(k) and other retirement plans are a mixed bag. Sure you get massive tax breaks, either in percentage now or total amount later, but you can’t be the custodian and all your investments are doxxed. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Always profitable to learn how to manage keys. My first wallet backup was writing down a single private key on paper, literally the back of an envelope. Didn’t have a thumb drive at the time and needed to format hard drive…almost didn’t have the patients for it! npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Ditto npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Sanity comes from having a purpose other than money that pays well…while I found bitcoin when I was nearly broke, I came up the salary tree at just the right pace to prevent me from being tempted to blow all of it … of course I parted with too much bitcoin during acute financial difficulties early on, but I was grateful for the ability to sell the back at the time. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo I like it npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo You know how bitcoin didn’t have a blow off top in late 2025 like we were all promised? npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo I stopped using capti because the operating system software for handicap accessibility worked well enough. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo None. There are only two types of patients: an incurable and destined to fix themselves without your help. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo There will also be some variability depending on who is serving you blocks…some nodes are really slow (like home nodes on poor connections). npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Only works if you can buy now and pay in 5 years…and only if you have bitcoin already :) npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Have you tried the built in accessibility feature on Mac and iOS? Capti for iOS is pricey too but works well, or did before I stopped using it by turning on the blind people screen reader gesture in settings. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Stabability npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo I’m ok with the change. Unless someone remembers the old days where we send 1-100 bitcoins around on a regular basis, it’s simpler to ignore the awkward between phase of bitcoin vs. sats npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo We spilled tea over what, 2%?
