Pleb counselor | Macro multi-strategy hedge fund manager | Physician (Radiologist) | MBA (finance) | Christ-follower | Bitcoin is better money for a better world I generally don’t respond to DMs.
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npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l Profile Code
nprofile1qqst0xtvrqlqxm0j0qpfgkuqh0wgkzl4judkvgdgd0e4d8pnyytlqlgpzemhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumn0wd68ytnzv9hxgqgdwaehxw309ahx7uewd3hkcp96yff
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2024-12-12T21:44:46Z Event JSON
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Last Notes npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff GM AND MERRY CHRISTMAS #NOSTR FAMILY! ☕️ I’M THANKFUL FOR EACH OF YOU WHO IS READING THIS. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff Me: “Do you want life to get less expensive over time and quality to improve?” Normie: “Is this a trick question?” Me: “No.” Normie: “Uhh… of course I do.” Me: “Then save in #Bitcoin.” Normie: “How much bitcoin should I buy?” Me: “It depends. How much of your life expenses would you like to get cheaper over time? And how much would you like the quality of your life to improve?” Normie: “Uhh… all of it?” Me: “Then there’s your answer.” Normie: “This sounds too good to be true. I’m going to stick with cash in the bank.” Me: “It’s your decision. Call me when you’re ready to get ahead, instead of always falling behind.” Normie: “Lol… okay.” Me: “Lol.” npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff Forget about the price in fiat currency units. Forget about timing the market like a degenerate trader. Forget about “being late.” #Bitcoin is the greatest savings technology in the history of the world. Literally. So, if you want to improve your station… Stack as much as possible, as soon as possible, and… In time… You will almost certainly do well. Very well, actually. 1. Head down. 2. Work hard. 3. Stack sats. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff Accurate. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff A gentle reminder that we are living in a tumultuous and sometimes confusing transition period from government-sponsored (and controlled) proof of stake monetary and financial systems to a decentralized, secure, proof of work, neutral, energy-based monetary and financial network. In other words, we are literally living through the separation of money and state. This is an extremely big deal for all of humanity. In light of this… Have some grace and patience. Many will make mistakes. Many will resist the transition, but later repent. It will be awkward for several years… even decades. But, in the end… It is inevitable… That #Bitcoin will win. Because Bitcoin is better money for a better world. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff I don’t know who needs to hear this today but, among other attributes, #bitcoin is a medium of exchange. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff You can’t ride two horses with one butt. It’s actually illogical to be pro-Dollar and pro-Bitcoin. These monetary networks are separate and ultimately antithetical to each other. I used to not understand this, but now I do… and I can’t unsee it. “Neither can live while the other survives.” - Sybill Trelawney npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff This recent rip with @npub1gu4…907g of @npub1vzj…x9gc just dropped. Nico is one of my favorite people in the #Bitcoin space. Check out the interview and let me know what I got wrong in the comments below! ⚡ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WSaRKsxKZI&t=29s npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff "We're focused on separating money from state, not extending the dollar hegemony." - @npub1trr…hdpu npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff Delayed effects of remarkable dollar strength (and its effects on global M2) since the beginning of 4Q 2024 finally setting in to #bitcoin? Range guesses (and order) still in play: 1. 105k-120k (already achieved?) 2. 75k-85k (probable low watermark for late 2024 or early 2025) 3. Zig zag higher, with mid-summer 2025 challenges 4. Ultimately, 200k-1M (target: #475k) still in play for 4Q 2025 or even 1Q 2026, until (when/if) the facts change Just my guesses, obviously. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff Serious question: What would you do in the coming years if you were no longer a slave to government-sponsored fiat grind? Asked another way, what does life on a #Bitcoin standard actually look like for you? npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff The invention of the internet of value (#Bitcoin) and separation of the production, control, and distribution of money (from government to the people) is the epic battle of our Age. This is not hyperbole. History will someday discuss this time period as a massive paradigm shift for humanity, although almost no one even understands what is happening… much less its profound implications. It’s quite similar to the near-coincident invention of the printing press (facilitating the production and distribution of information) and the separation of Church and State. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff At this point, we’ve progressed far enough to know that people don’t even need to be particularly smart or cutting edge to save their purchasing power in #Bitcoin, they just need to not be stupid. Anyway, GM. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff The ever present desire to completely unplug and live happily ever after on a Bitcoin standard. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff Another Mastermind discussion on tap this evening with @npub1s5y…6q7z , @npub1s9z…nszc, and @npub1rtl…jtfs. Should be lit, as usual. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff Dump it. All of it. The US government shouldn’t keep any #bitcoin it forcibly took from others. Honest, hard-working people around the world will benefit from the temporary price reduction. #note1cym…4a6s npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff What I'm watching... 👀 A strong negative divergence is forming on the $DXY daily chart. After it's recent (impressive) surge, a US dollar breakdown is IMMINENT... and likely to be triggered by the (dovish) words of Jerome Powell and the (dovish) actions of the FOMC later today. Why it matters: A breakdown of the US dollar is NET POSITIVE for risk assets, emerging markets and--you guessed it--#bitcoin. I wouldn't be surprised if #bitcoin pushes towards $100k by the end of 2024, given the current macroeconomic setup. Not a bold prediction, just a guess. Let's watch. 🍿 https://m.primal.net/Lvfr.png npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff Boing indeed. ⚡ #note1wuu…gtmj npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff What I'm watching... 👀 Boing? A healthy retest around $68k then onwards and (generally) upwards for the rest of 4Q 2024? This would be my highest probability guess. I would not want to be short the king of assets at this point in time. #bitcoin https://m.primal.net/LqYK.png npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff Fiat monetary debasement is gaining traction, as reflected in the fiat price of the world’s only neutral energy money: #Bitcoin. I expect this trend to continue—and actually accelerate—in the coming 12-14 months. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff My favorite page on the StLouisFed .org (FRED) site: "Buying eggs with bitcoins." OVER THE PAST FIVE YEARS... From September 2019 through September 2024, the price of a dozen eggs: - In US dollars: Up +177%, from $1.38 to $3.82. https://m.primal.net/LSkU.png - In #bitcoin: Down -55%, from 14,119 sats to 6,310 sats. https://m.primal.net/LSkZ.png CONCLUSION: Life gets constantly more expensive the longer you save in dollars (or any government fiat currency), while it generally gets (much) cheaper the longer you save in #bitcoin. Inflationary fiat currency versus neutral inelastic energy money... The choice is yours. Source: https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2022/06/buying-eggs-with-bitcoins/ npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff It’s always sad when stink bids don’t get filled. 😢 npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff Remember early September? When the #bitcoin price was just chillin at $53k? Buckle up for the coming 12-13 months. #note1xwp…v08w npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff Yes. ⚡️ npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff #CrypticPosts 200 to 1000 npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff What he said. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff UPDATE: Bullish. 🐂 npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff 🍻 npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff 😂🍻 npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff Three things that are real: 1. Conference burnout 2. Podcast burnout 3. Social media burnout npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff Recession + inflation… a return of the 1970s. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff I think it will be about the same as past cycles. Human behavior is cyclical and often predictable. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff I know that I’m not supposed to care, but I pity the fool who is selling his #bitcoin today based on short term FUD. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff #58kforever 🧡 #note1n8a…7pnh npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff 🤝 npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff Patience. Things don’t happen on a daily basis. These are multi-quarter trends. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff lol… I welcome lower prices, actually, given my bullish outlook. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff Before the month ends, I would guess. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff There is great satisfaction and joy in becoming less. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff 🍻 npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff Thanks. 🍻 npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff Nothing has changed for me from a macro standpoint. I expect economic growth, inflation, and global M2 to all mildly accelerate from here, which is generally good for risk assets and should be fantastic for bitcoin. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff I thought it might surprise to the downside, but it didn’t. Regardless, nothing has changed for me from a macro standpoint. I expect economic growth, inflation, and global M2 to all mildly accelerate from here, which is generally good for risk assets and should be fantastic for bitcoin. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff No change to this guess, which will be wrong. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff STATUS UPDATE: Bullish. 🐂 npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff 🤝 npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff We will only see mild inflation acceleration from here. Very unlikely to repeat the 1970s. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff Agreed. It’s why they have pivoted attention to the unemployment rate. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff I still remain exceedingly bullish about bitcoin price action over the coming 12-13 months. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff The September CPI of 2.4% is likely to be this cycle’s low. It will almost certainly creep higher over the coming months. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff It feels good to be wrong (again). 😂 npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff lol... my CPI guess was... wrong! Core Inflation Rate MoM: 0.3% vs 0.2% (forecast) and 0.3% (prior) Core Inflation Rate YoY: 3.3% vs 3.2% (forecast) and 3.3% (prior) Inflation Rate MoM: 0.2% vs 0.1% (forecast) and 0.2% (prior) Inflation Rate YoY: 2.4% vs 2.3% (forecast) and 2.5% (prior) #macro That's what I get for making (another) public prediction. 😂 Ironically, my expectations for the USD, interest rates, risk assets, and #bitcoin may actually work out over the coming days/weeks because of another important data point... Initial Jobless Claims: 258k vs 230k (forecast) and 225k (prior) This gives the Fed the ongoing excuse to lower the Fed Funds rate as they turn their attention from inflation to employment. Regardless, that was fun. Onwards. ⚡ #note1thh…664v npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff T minus 60 minutes for the US CPI report (September data) 🍿 #note1k6z…pnyg npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff The irony. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff Will it be in Colorado Springs? npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff UPDATE: The dollar has been up bigly seven out the past eight trading days. NO ONE COULD HAVE SEEN THIS COMING... 👀 #macro #note1pfn…hx89 npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff https://m.primal.net/LQPM.jpg npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff #CrypticPosts Oct 2024 <83 B <63 SB <43 BWL npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff #CrypticPosts 2024: From 3 to 2. 2025: From 2 to 1? npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff My stupid worthless non-investable short-term predictions which are not any sort of individual advice: - The Oct. 10 US CPI will "surprise" many to the downside... "lower than expected!!" Soon thereafter: - The US dollar (which has recently been surging) will rollover and head lower - Interest rates (which have recently been surging) will rollover and head lower - VIX (which has recently spiked) will turn lower - Risk assets will resume their uptrend - #bitcoin will make bold moves higher... since the next leg of the bull market has officially begun (slowly at first, then exponential in 2H 2025) - Ironically, #inflation has likely already bottomed (as partially reflected in the coming low September CPI print) and should trend slowly higher over the coming couple of quarters npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff That is cool. Few know how to drive stick these days npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff All proof of stake #crypto arguments boil down to this... Even from otherwise intelligent people: "It's relevant because I own some and the price is going up. Also, the price is going up, proving that it is relevant." npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff Only 36. Some I hope not to experience. Onwards. ⚡️ #note1u9u…y50a npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff Exactly npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff The excitement is palpable npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff Lots of reasons. But a primary one is that Canadian free markets have been almost completely co-opted by the central authorities. Centrally-controlled markets are dysfunctional, by definition. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff That’s unfortunate, but at least you can still get something for them. 😂 npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff I’d say #1, since Bitcoin is antithetical to the existence of the IMF. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff #Bitcoin is the bane of the IMF’s existence. Prediction: The IMF will rail against the growing Bitcoin network until the IMF ceases to exist. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff It's crazy (to me) that you can exchange only 64 US government debasement units (dollars) for 100,000 purchasing power units (sats). #Bitcoin npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff 😂 npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff Just checking in… How is the #58kforever gang holding up? #note1f39…82k0 npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff No. I generally despise debates, as they often devolve into angry displays of arrogance. I enjoy having conversations with people who are genuinely interested and truly love to learn. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff Joe and I have fairly similar views and outlooks. George is too much of a Doom and Gloomer for my taste… but certain people love it. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff I think George means well and obviously attracts a certain personality type. Thanks to @npub1s05…eyhe and @npub1a2c…w83a, he is slowly coming around to #Bitcoin. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff GM. Confidence is attractive. Arrogance is ugly. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff 😂 npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff 🍻 npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff It’s amazing how different the present and future world looks and feels when viewed with an accurate measurement tool. #Bitcoin npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff Yes. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff Everyone and their grandmother is talking about “liquidity” now. My work here is finished… npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff Just finished my quarterly (4Q 2024) memo for clients of Vailshire Partners LP hedge fund. Note that I am limited by the regulators as to what I can share publicly (especially regarding unaudited results/returns), so I am sharing what I can in this edited copy for you. It's a little confusing, as many numbers are XX'd for privacy. Hopefully you will still find it useful. Cheers! https://conta.cc/4eRZbTS npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff Bitcoin follows global M2 more closely than US net liquidity. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff A brief update on... - US Net Liquidity (top blue line): Still chopping sideways since April 2022. OPINION #1: US based assets (think micro/small/mid-cap stocks) are likely to continue to chop sideways until US net liquidity momentum moves decidedly higher. - Global M2 monetary supply (approximate, lower blue line): This has decisively broken higher over the past several months and is unlikely to contract meaningfully in the coming 12 months or so. OPINION #2: This upside breakout of global M2 bodes well for the price action of global assets like #bitcoin, #gold, and US megacap technology stocks. Just my opinions, of course. https://m.primal.net/LLKv.png npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff The Fed vs The Fed Up Copypasta from #Hedgeye and Bob Rich (artist). https://m.primal.net/LLGd.png npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff In my experience, based on training, the best investors are… #note1wek…xzj2 npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff Engineers, definitely. Having an emotion-free, iterative, systematic investment process is a huge advantage over the vast majority of emotional market participants. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff I don't know who needs to hear this today, but most Economists--especially the famous ones--have mid-to-terrible investment track records. Choose carefully to whom you listen. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff No. But they are still directionally helpful and--importantly--the majority of market participants believe the "official" data. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff Yup. Inflationary money is abominable and leads to two classes of Americans: the Owner class and the Renter class. The Renter class has experienced a slowly and steadily worsening of their quality of life over the past 50 years or so. Meanwhile, the Owner (stocks, real estate, bitcoin, etc.) class have enjoyed a stable or steadily improving quality of life over the same time period. #Bitcoin will eventually fix this. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff September unemployment rate: 4.1% vs 4.2% (expected) and 4.2% (prior) September US nonfarm payrolls: +254k vs +132.5k (expected) and +159k (prior; revised from +142k) The Doom and Gloomers and Recessionistas are... wait for it... wrong again. #macro Onwards. 🐂 npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff I’m in a quandary, please help me decide something: The US federal government is: A. Mostly worthless. B. Totally worthless. 🇺🇸 npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff It’s a loooong drive to RINO. That said, I’d love to see the space and y’all someday. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff I would like it to be closer to Colorado Springs. 🍻 npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff Someday, all will do this. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff Fellow physicians and providers: Over time, the only way for you and your practice to provide higher quality services at ever-cheaper prices for your patients is to put your practice on a #Bitcoin standard. The longer you wait to do this, the further you and your practice/business will fall behind. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff No. But I am often wrong. npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l DrJeff What do you get when the #58kforever gang meets Dr. Bull?